The 5G smartphone market should be analyzed by its three distinctly different segments, says a veteran semiconductor analyst.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：一位經驗豐富的半導體分析師表示，5G智能手機市場應該分成三個截然不同的細分市場進行分析。

　　About a dozen market research forecasts predict the number of 5G smartphones will range between half and one billion units by 2023, rising faster than the adoption rate of 4G LTE smartphones. However, 5G devices are best seen segmented into three main segments.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：大約十二個市場研究預測表明，到2023年，5G智能手機的數量將在5億到10億個之間，增長速度超過4G LTE智能手機的采用率。 但是，5G設備最好分為三個主要部分。

　　In the next three-to-five years, the main segment will be for sub-6 GHz handsets, representing an evolution of the 4G telecom standard. Early high volumes will be in the new 3.5-4.5 GHz frequency range.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：在未來三到五年內，主要部分將用于低于6 GHz的手機，代表了4G電信標準的演變。 早期的高容量將在新的3.5-4.5 GHz頻率范圍內。

　　Sub-6GHz 5G technology is critical since it adds a large frequency spectrum with wide bandwidth to the current heavily saturated 4G and 3G cellular bands, mainly concentrated below the 2.1-GHz frequency. Interestingly, the current 4G technology will continue to evolve and complement sub-6GHz 5G for a variety of reasons I won’t discuss here.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：低于6GHz的5G技術至關重要，因為它為當前嚴重飽和的4G和3G蜂窩頻段增加了帶寬的大頻譜，主要集中在2.1GHz頻率以下。 有趣的是，目前的4G技術將繼續發展并補充低于6GHz的5G，原因有很多，我在此不再討論。

　　A second, moredisruptive and revolutionary segment is in millimeter wave (mmwave) 5G, at present mostly at 28 and 39 GHz. The 5G mmwave capability in smartphones will be added on top of sub-6-GHz 5G. By the year 2025, only a third of 5G smartphones will likely have mmwave capability, giving components for the sub-6 segment a 3:1 edge.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：第二個更具顛覆性和革命性的部分是毫米波（mmwave）5G，目前主要是28和39 GHz。 智能手機中的5G mmwave功能將添加到6GHz以下的5G之上。 到2025年，只有三分之一的5G智能手機可能具有mmwave功能，從而為6分段提供3：1的優勢。

　　到2025年，支持mmwave頻段的手機將只占5G智能手機的三分之一。（資料來源：Petrov Group）

　　A separate 5G IoT segment addresses data transfer from a very large number of end devices at below gigahertz frequencies. The standards and protocols for 5G IoT are not defined yet, in part because initial optimistic expectations of cellular IoT in 4G have not been met despite big efforts, especially in China.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：單獨的5G IoT段解決了來自大量低于千兆赫茲頻率的終端設備的數據傳輸。 5G IoT的標準和協議尚未定義，部分原因是盡管做出了巨大努力，特別是在中國，對4G中蜂窩物聯網的初步樂觀預期尚未得到滿足。

　　It’s important to note that in the next few years many smartphones will claim to have 5G capabilities that a network operator can enable with a simple software upgrade of its network. However, the sub-6-GHz and mmwave segments are distinct and significant for several reasons, including regional differences, potential for supply chain disruption and for positioning of smartphone and infrastructure vendors.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：值得注意的是，在未來幾年內，許多智能手機將擁有5G功能，網絡運營商可通過簡單的網絡軟件升級實現這些功能。 然而，由于若干原因，包括區域差異，供應鏈中斷的可能性以及智能手機和基礎設施供應商的定位，6 GHz以下和mmwave分段具有獨特性和重要性。

　　In the near term mmwave 5G is important primarily in the U.S. market, as well as in the much smaller Japan and South Korea markets. It is aggressively promoted by network operators who pushed for municipal installation permits for base stations in a less time consuming and less expensive manner.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：在短期內，mmwave 5G主要在美國市場以及規模小得多的日本和韓國市場中占有重要地位。 它由網絡運營商積極推動，他們以更少的時間和更便宜的方式推動基站的市政安裝許可。

　　Actual use cases for mmwave 5G are somewhat unconvincing and uncertain due to cost and performance challenges. The much larger sub-6GHz market is expected to blossom in Asia, mostly in China. Thus, it could be dominated by Huawei’s wireless infrastructure equipment.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：由于成本和性能方面的挑戰，mmwave 5G的實際使用情況有些令人難以置信且不確定。 預計亞洲6GHz以上的市場將大幅增長，主要是在中國。 因此，它可能由華為的無線基礎設施設備主導。

　　The two segments are significantly different in their likely effect on supply chains in RF front end (RFFE) modules. The sub-6GHz segment likely will extend the current dominance of RFFE module vendors Broadcom, Skyworks, Qorvo, Murata and the more recent fabless entrant, Qualcomm.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：這兩個部分在RF前端（RFFE）模塊中對供應鏈可能的影響方面存在顯著差異。 低于6GHz的市場可能會擴大RFFE模塊供應商Broadcom，Skyworks，Qorvo，Murata以及最近的無晶圓廠進入者高通公司的主導地位。

　　The mmwave segment brings challenges in cost, low power, new materials, packaging, and testing. In particular, mmwave transmitters need to be very close to antenna arrays, preferably in the same system-in-package. Thus, they are likely to disrupt the established supply chain, giving an advantage to modem suppliers such as Qualcomm, Samsung, HiSilicon, MediaTek, and Unisoc.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：mmwave一定程度上帶來了成本，低功耗，新材料，封裝和測試方面的挑戰。 特別是，mmwave發射器需要非常靠近天線陣列，最好是在相同的系統級封裝中。 因此，它們可能會擾亂已建立的供應鏈，從而為高通，三星，海思，聯發科和Unisoc等現代供應商帶來機遇。

　　Huawei/HiSilicon is effectively prevented from competing in the U.S. 5G market today. That’s giving Samsung a big incentive to compete in 5G segments against Apple and its supplier Qualcomm.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：今天，華為/海思半導體無法在美國5G市場上有效地競爭。 這給三星帶來了與蘋果及其供應商高通公司競爭5G領域的巨大動力。

　　A high priority for Samsung is to build up its volumes in foundry wafers as well as IC packages (note its investments in panel-level fan-out capability) in order to compete against TSMC. Samsung already has reclassified support of its smartphone group as part of its foundry business.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：三星的首要任務是在代工晶圓和集成電路封裝（注意其在面板級扇出能力方面的投資）上增加產量，以與臺積電競爭。三星已經將其智能手機集團的支持重新歸類為其代工業務的一部分。

　　Samsung also stated a goal to become the third largest global supplier of wireless infrastructure equipment. In the next few years, it will be very active in achieving its corporate strategy goals.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：三星還宣布了要成為全球第三大無線基礎設施供應商的目標。 在未來幾年，它將非常積極地實現其企業戰略目標。

　　Overall, market segmentation for 5G smartphones will continue to evolve. And 5G has major implications beyond smartphones for a large number of other markets and industries.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：總體而言，5G智能手機的市場細分將會繼續發展。 對于其他市場和行業而言，在智能手機之外5G具有重大意義。

　　-Boris Petrov is managing partner of the Petrov Group. He spent the last ten years leading market intelligence and strategic marketing at the SCL/JCET group and previously held positions at Intel, Zilog, Siemens, McKinsey, Boston Consulting, and Booz-Allen.

　　機器翻譯（僅供參考）：-Boris Petrov是Petrov集團的管理合伙人。 最近十年，他在SCL / JCET集團擔任市場情報和戰略營銷的領導。此前曾在英特爾，Zilog，西門子，麥肯錫，波士頓咨詢公司和Booz-Allen擔任過職務。